Biden Has a Phone Call with China’s Xi That Went Nowhere
Enodo Economics reported that that China’s President Xi and US President Biden had a phone conversation hoping to gain an “improved dialogue alongside the usual differences on geopolitical and ideological issues.’’ The official readouts from both sides made clear there was no progress in addressing the rising adversarial tensions associated with technology, economics, and the military issues.
The US and China’s technology competition is locked in what Enodo refers to as an action/reaction dynamic. The inherent unpredictable nature of technological evolutions has resulted in the Biden Administration trying to maximize prohibitions against Western technology transfers to China
The State Department readouts on these diplomatic phone calls is usually boring. But President Xi’s leveled the usually heavy criticism that Biden Administration technology restrictions were a fundamental challenge to China’s right to continue peaceful economic development.
According to Enodo: “A Biden administration is unlikely to match the rumored 60% tariffs on Chinese goods that a second Trump administration will seek to implement. Yet a more protectionist stance will nevertheless further damage the US-China relationship, and disrupt global supply chains – with negative consequences for consumers on both sides of the conflict.’’
Enodo suggests Xi’s aggressive indignation demonstrates China’s vulnerability to the tech restrictions begun by former President Trump. They doubt that the two sides can ratchet down US restrictive policy measures in the future.
With Trump as Biden’s likely opponent in November’s election, both Presidential candidates will move farther to aggressively restrict China’s access to US technology. Enodo suggests that both political parties racing to gain an advantage over each other with sterner economic sanctions, China now sees itself standing with a “guillotine over its head.’’
Biden followed up the call with a trilateral summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos on constraining China at the White House. An anonymous official told the Associated Press that the Washington DC meetings were intended to send a message that China “is the outlier in the neighborhood.”
Enodo emphasized that: “Tensions have flared in recent months as China has intensified grey zone tactics against Philippine activity around the Scarborough Shoal.” Despite the US and the Philippines conducting more frequent joint military exercises in March, Chinese coast guard and maritime militia harassed Philippine civilian vessels attempting to resupply a military outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal.
The White House announced after Biden met individually with Marcos, that the US had “reinforced the ironclad US alliance commitment to the Philippines… which extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – to include those of its Coast Guard – in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Enodo emphasized that the South China Sea risks becoming another flashpoint in a region already riven with risk from Taiwan. Any intensification of China’s grey zone tactics risks an accident that could spill into conflict. “And while neither side wants such an outcome, nor will they want to be perceived as backing down.’’