Hurricanes Are Neither Increasing In Number or Intensity

The latest Global Warming Policy Foundation report on global climate change found that hurricanes are neither increasing in number nor intensity, confirming that there are no upward trends in global hurricane activity since reliable records began in the 1970s.

The Global frequency of major hurricanes increased during the 1990s, mainly because of the ending of the cold phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.  The trend has been flat since that time, and there is clearly a declining trend in both overall numbers and severity of storms. 

Comprehensive observation of world-wide hurricane activity probably did not start until around 1980.  Categorization of hurricanes under the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on 1-minute sustained wind speeds, range from Category 1, with winds of at least 74 mph, up to Category 5, where winds reach 157 mph. 

About 67% of all global hurricanes are hurricanes that make landfall in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific.

Globally there were 46 hurricanes in 2023, compared to an annual average of 47 since 1980.  The number of major hurricanes for the year were above average at 31, but below average over the three previous years.  The three ear sum of global major hurricanes hit a record low in 2023.   

The new finding come in sharp contrast to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report that recently stated the global proportion of major hurricanes had increased over the last four decades.  The IPCC Sixth Assessment also proposed two new controversial assumptions without data, that the latitude where hurricanes reach their peak intensity had shifted northwards and that climate change had increased heavy precipitation during tropical cyclones.

The Global Warming Policy Foundation directly rebuts the IPCC claim that hurricanes had increased, and can find no evidence that peak intensity had shifted or that precipitation levels in tropical cyclones had increased.