There has been allot of action in the stock market with a huge move up after Trump took a commanding election poll lead last April; and a big move down since Trump 47 took office in January.
But despite all the gyrations that include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down by 972 points today, the DJIA is almost exactly at the same price level it was when Trump took a commanding lead in the election on April 18, 2024.
The real action has been in the falling value of U.S. dollar’s currency exchange rate that is down over 7% versus the average of the world’s major exchange rates.
Wall Street likes a strong dollar because it buys more of other nation’s exports, but working Americans want a weak dollar because it makes the products they make competitive.
President Clinton granted Chinese Communist Party most favored nation status that paved the way to joining the World Trade Organization in 2000. Clinton told America:
“For the first time, our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in China made by workers here in America without being forced to relocate manufacturing to China, sell through the Chinese government, or transfer valuable technology—for the first time. We’ll be able to export products without exporting jobs.”
But the net American job loss impact from 2001 to 2018 due to Clinton’s approval for China’s entry into the WTO, is estimated to be about 3.7 million jobs.
About three quarters, or 2.775 million, American job losses during the period were in manufacturing. High-tech and durable goods sectors accounted for 1.3 million job losses. California by far suffered the worst impacts with the loss of 654,000 jobs.
The job loss numbers would have been much higher, but President Trump 45 became President in 2017 and began racketing up tariffs against China. Trump blamed China for the majority of the trade deficit, rampant intellectual property theft,and job losses.
Trump 45 launched his first tariff tranche on July 6, 2018 by hitting $34 billion in Chinese machinery, electrical equipment, and auto parts exports with a 25% charge; second tranche was added on August 23, 2018 with $16 billion of Chinese intermediate goods and technology product added; and tranche 3was added on September 24, 2018 covering another $200 billion of consumer apparel, footwear and electronics.
China quickly retaliated with its own tariffs. But as a nation that has never been able to feed itself, Chinese importers shipped agricultural products to Hong Kong and then ferried mostly soybeans and pork to the mainland.
Trade Deficit: The deficit shrank from $419.2 billion in 2018 to $345.6 billion in 2019 (17.6% reduction), a $73.6 billion decrease, though still high historically.
China bent the knee and signed a Phase One Agreement in January 2020 by committing to annually purchase $200 billion in U.S. goods starting in 2021. But with President Biden taking office, China only bought $114 billion of American goods.
The Biden administration allowed the dollar to strengthen by almost 20% during his four year term, As shown by the chart below, Wall Street loved it, and the stock market rose.
As a result of Biden’s massive deficit spending and lax enforcement of China tariffs, the U.S. savings rate almost went negative and the net current account trade balance plunged to near record lows.
Mountain Top Times sources believe Trump 47’s 100% “Tariff Terror” against China has successfully stressed the “Workshop to the World” into an existential crisis.
The billionaire class saw Trump headed for reelection by 2022 and moved major percentages of their manufacturing capacity to the “Little Chinas”; Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia.
China’s millionaire class that does not have the deep pockets to diversify manufacturing sites, seems headed for an epic crash.
How bad will the shortages and prices get?